The labor market is holding still, and the Federal Reserve intends to leave it there. On October 28 the Committee held the target range at 3.75 to 4 percent. The statement said job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little. Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, and both wanted a quarter-point increase.
The data underneath is thin. BLS reported 29,000 payroll jobs for September and a 4.2 percent unemployment rate, with July revised to a loss of 10,000 and August trimmed to 133,000. Hourly earnings are up 3.0 percent over twelve months. ADP’s weekly series shows the drift continuing, with private employers adding 16,750 jobs a week on average. Few people are being let go and few are being brought in. Of the 7.1 million unemployed, 1.9 million, about 27 percent, have been out of work 27 weeks or more.
Age claims keep reaching juries. A man in his mid-60s sued Norfolk Southern under the Age Discrimination in Employment Act, and a jury awarded nearly $1.6 million, split between compensatory and liquidated damages. He alleged that a superintendent asked why he had not retired before 65, then used a company fitness evaluation to keep him out of work. Those allegations are the plaintiff’s. The jury found in his favor and the judge affirmed the verdict.
Staffing is turning before payrolls are. Robert Half reported third-quarter revenue of $1.359 billion, and CEO Keith Waddell said talent solutions returned to adjusted year-over-year growth for the first time since 2022. Contract talent solutions rose 1.0 percent adjusted, led by technology at 3.9 percent, while administrative and customer support fell 3.1 percent. Protiviti, the consulting arm, slipped 3.3 percent, and enterprise revenue overall was roughly flat. Waddell called the improvement gradual, and the profit line agrees: net income was $50 million against $43 million a year earlier.
Permanent placement grew 5.6 percent adjusted, faster than contract. What does that say? Employers are paying fees for people they have already decided they want, and they are still declining to add volume. That is selective hiring, and selective hiring favors the candidate who can show a track record in the first conversation. I have sat through enough budget cycles to know that a flat quarter becomes a hiring plan only after finance sees two of them in a row.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management surveyed 5,106 people in July and found that 49 percent of Gen X savers feel on track for retirement, down from 58 percent a year earlier. No other generation in the survey fell below 60.
Nobody in that cohort needed the survey. They did the math a long time ago and they do not announce the result. Fifty-seven percent have picked up work outside their main job, and 72 percent of those people say they need the income. Some call it a side hustle. Most of them call it Tuesday. Only 57 percent describe their main job as financially stable, the lowest of any generation, and 53 percent say money worries make it hard to focus at work at least sometimes. They show up anyway.
Thirty-two percent expect to look for a new job within twelve months, mostly for the money. That is a large group of proven operators who are already open to a better offer.