Federal policy is shrinking the foreign-sponsored talent pipeline faster than most hiring plans account for. The Congressional Research Service found that initial H-1B petitions from cap-exempt employers fell 91 percent between September 21, 2025 and May 24, 2026, against the same period a year earlier. Cognizant’s FY2027 registrations dropped to zero, TCS’s fell 95 percent, and Infosys’s fell 91 percent. CRS attributes the decline to a weighted lottery, a proposed prevailing wage increase, new fees, and tougher enforcement.
Enforcement is running in parallel. The Justice Department settled with Cloudera this week: a two-year bar from the PERM program, a $1.4 million fund for affected workers, and $600,000 in civil penalties. Cloudera denies discrimination and says an internal-only email address was an accident. Federal officials count the $5 million Instacart settlement as their fifteenth visa case against a company.
Overall hiring is soft. ADP’s NER Pulse shows private employers adding an average of 18,500 jobs a week over the four weeks ended October 3, down from a revised 26,000. Fewer sponsored hires and slower general hiring leave the open work to people who are already authorized, already trained, and available now. The ADP figures are preliminary and carry a two-week lag.
The recovery is broadening, and the contract channel shows it first. Randstad reported North America revenue up 10 percent in the third quarter, with US Operational up 19 percent and US Professional up 3. ManpowerGroup’s US revenue rose 5.5 percent, professional staffing returned to growth, and Experis in the US turned positive. Investors wanted more: group revenue of $4.84 billion missed consensus and the shares fell 15 percent.
Industrial hours reached an index of 100, driven by manufacturing, logistics, and data-center clients. Amazon will hire more than 300,000 for the holidays, up 20 percent, while Challenger expects seasonal retail hiring below last year’s 450,000, the lowest since 2008. Hiring is concentrating, not spreading.
Where does a recovery show up first? In the contract requisition. I have sat through enough upturns to know the first people called back are the ones who need no ramp.
One operational note. Bullhorn, whose ATS and CRM run at roughly 10,000 staffing firms, shut off access on October 17 after a cyberattack. Service is returning, but the company has not said whether customer data was accessed. Expect phishing, and treat any request for credentials as suspect.
SD Worx surveyed European workers and found that 78 percent of those 55 and older are satisfied with their jobs, against 71 percent of workers under 35. Five percent of the older group are looking for another job. Among the under-35s, it is 19 percent.
Nobody over 55 needs a study to explain this. By now you have tested the other side of the fence, and it is mostly the same grass with a nicer break room. Staying is a decision made with evidence.
The second half of the survey is for employers. Fifty percent of the older group want no more training, and only 17 percent feel supported for an AI-driven future, against 29 percent of younger workers. That is an investment gap, and someone will price it. The survey is from a payroll provider, covers Europe, and the coverage gives no sample size. Take the direction as the signal.